VesselsValue has issued its shipping market outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting how structural disruptions, sanctions dynamics, and market complexity arising from the “shadow fleet” activity, are shaping freight rates and future vessel earnings across the tanker, bulker, container, and gas sectors.
According to VesselsValue, global shipping markets remain shaped by significant structural disruptions. The EU ban on Russian oil imports and ongoing Suez Canal diversions are extending voyage distances and tightening vessel supply. These developments provide strong support for current freight rates.
However, the market faces added complexity from a substantial shadow fleet transporting sanctioned crude and products from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. These cargoes are primarily shipped to China and India, displacing demand for conventional tonnage.
Any successful tightening of sanctions enforcement on this grey fleet operations represents a potential upside catalyst for non-sanctioned vessel earnings and future rate expectations.
Tankers
In the tanker sector, geopolitical disruptions drive ton-mile demand. EU sanctions on Russian crude and Red Sea diversions have significantly extended voyage distances, with Europe’s shift from short-haul Russian supplies to longer-distance Middle East, US, and Latin American crude supporting tanker ton mile demand.
Transportation fuel demand faces mounting pressure from engine efficiency improvements, electrification trends, fuel switching initiatives, and structural changes like remote work adoption, signalling slower demand growth ahead.
Meanwhile, the fleet expansion threatens the market balance. Rising newbuilding deliveries and limited scrapping activity will likely create downward pressure on utilisation rates after 2025, potentially offsetting positive ton-mile developments despite the current 16% orderbook representing moderate fleet growth.
Furthermore, the newbuilding activity is declining sharply. Year-to-date tanker contracting volumes remain 55% below 2024 levels, with product tanker orders down 70% and crude tanker orders falling 42%, though sustained container vessel demand keeps shipyard utilisation elevated and newbuilding prices above historical averages.
Bulkers
The bulker market is currently in healthy balance after years of low fleet growth paired with steady demand, resulting in solid freight rates throughout the year despite global economic uncertainty and subdued demand growth.
In addition, the decarbonisation efforts are driving strong demand for minor bulk commodities such as bauxite, supporting the China-Guinea trade, but simultaneously reducing seaborne steam coal trade as major consumers like China and India expand renewable capacity and domestic production self-sufficiency.
Containers
Container TEU-mile demand growth is expected to reach only 2.4% in 2025, followed by an average of 3% between 2026-2028, with US import tariffs dampening growth and limited upside potential from Red Sea diversions as the extra sailing distances are already factored into current market dynamics.
Despite nearly 4.3 million TEU deliveries, freight rates have stayed firm throughout 2024 and early 2025, supported by carriers reducing average speeds by 2.3% to limit supply growth.
Meanwhile, net fleet growth averaged 5.5% in 2023 and 9.7% in 2024, with projections of 8.7% average growth between 2025-2028 driven by high ordering activity, whilst Container TEU-mile demand growth remains more modest, creating a supply-demand imbalance.
Gas
US LPG production grew around 4.5% with export growth of 10.9% in 2024, whilst Middle East exports rose 6.5% despite oil production cuts, with several terminal expansions and LNG projects expected to further boost export capacity through 2028.
VLGC/VLAC net fleet growth reached 10.9% in 2024 with average yearly growth of 7.4% forecast, whilst medium-sized vessel growth averaged 10.1% in 2024 and expects 11.4% annually through 2028, driven by high historical ordering activity despite muted 2025 contracting.
