The ongoing impact of conflict in the Red Sea, spiraling freight rates and congestion across global ocean container supply chains resulted in record high carbon emissions in the third quarter, with an increase of more than 30%, according to Oslo’s Xeneta, the ocean and air freight rate benchmarking and market analytics platform.

The Xeneta and Marine Benchmark Carbon Emissions Index (CEI), which measures carbon emissions across Xeneta’s top 13 ocean container shipping trades, hit 107.9 points in the third quarter this year, the highest on record and up 12.2% compared to a year ago before the Red Sea crisis.

The third quarter of 2024 is only the second time the 100-point mark has been breached, with the first time being the first quarter of 2024 in the immediate aftermath of escalation in the Red Sea.

According to Xeneta, the effect of the Red Sea crisis on the CEI is most clearly seen in a year-on-year comparison, with the four trades most impacted by diversions around the Cape of Hope, seeing emissions increase by more than 30% in Q3 2024 compared to Q3 2023 (the two fronthauls and two backhauls connecting the Far East with North Europe and Mediterranean).

The biggest year-on-year increase is found on the Far East to Mediterranean trade, up 60.1%, while the backhaul is up 46.3%.

The trade from North Europe to South America East Coast has also seen a year-on-year CEI increase of more than 30% in Q3, despite not transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

Conversely, five trades have seen lower emissions compared to Q3 last year and these are trades not impacted by longer sailing distances around Africa.

The backhaul from the US East Coast to the Mediterranean has seen by far the biggest year-on-year drop in Q3, down 26.5%.

Comparing Q3 with Q2 provides insight into the evolving impact of the Red Sea conflict on the CEI during 2024.

Emissions on the fronthaul from the Far East to Mediterranean (the trade with the biggest year-on-year increase) actually fell in Q3, down by 3.5% from Q2 to 140.6 points (the backhaul increased a further 10% in Q3 to 164.3 points).

The biggest quarter-on-quarter increases in Q3 are found on backhaul trades unimpacted by the Red Sea diversion. Most notably, emissions have increased 40.3% from the US West Coast to Far East and 19.7% from the US East Coast to North Europe.

Source: Xeneta. To read the full analysis pls see here.