In LPG shipping, fleet growth is shaped by demand trends, commercial conditions, and freight earnings, while LNG carrier demand is more closely tied to liquefaction capacity, energy security, and long-term contracts. This is the main conclusion of the second part of Allied QuantumSea Research analysis, which focuses on the gas carrier fleet expansion. Following its recent analysis on LNG shipping, Allied continues its two-part special focus on gas carrier fleet expansion. Special Focus II turns to LPG fleet expansion into 2025.
According to Allied QuantumSea Research, LPG fleet expansion into 2025 remains measured and commercially driven, with ordering guided by expected trade flows and freight earnings rather than policy mandates.
This creates a more cyclical market structure than LNG, with vessel supply and earnings responding to changes in demand and spot rates.
The demand drivers and trade flows
Petrochemical demand from propane dehydrogenation plants in China and other Asian markets is the main driver of LPG trade growth, Allied said, supported by steady residential and industrial consumption.
On the supply side, LPG export growth is concentrated in the United States, the Middle East, and Russia, with rising U.S. output and export capacity supporting long-haul flows into Asia and tonne-mile demand.
The policy and energy transition context
LPG does not hold the same place as LNG in emissions regulations or energy security policy. “While cleaner than coal and fuel oil, its growth is driven mainly by economic activity and industrial demand,” Allied analysis notes.
Fleet expansion is aligned more with consumption trends and price signals than with long-term climate policy or government-backed infrastructure programmes.
The fleet expansion strategy and high CBM vessels
LPG carrier investment is owner-led and commercially motivated, with operators focusing on fleet renewal, fuel efficiency, and flexibility rather than aggressive capacity additions.
According to Allied QuantumSea Research, newbuilding activity remains selective and is increasingly centred on larger, modern, high CBM vessels that improve cargo intake, voyage economics, and emissions performance.
What is next
The distinction between LPG and LNG shipping remains clear. LPG shipping keeps a demand-driven, flexible profile, with fleet growth guided by market expectations rather than fixed project timelines.
LNG shipping, by contrast, is more closely linked to liquefaction projects, long-term contract cover, and energy security strategies, Allied said, which provide higher employment visibility but less flexibility.
