World trade is on track to hit a record of nearly $33 trillion in 2024, with a $1 trillion increase largely driven by a 7% rise in services trade, but risks of expanded trade wars and ongoing geopolitical challenges cast uncertainty over the outlook for 2025, according to the latest global trade update published by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
This $1 trillion increase, reflecting 3.3% annual growth, highlights resilience in global trade despite persistent challenges.
According to UNCTAD’s latest data, the robust growth in trade services, which increased by 7% this year, accounted for half of the expansion.
In contrast, goods trade grew by 2%, remaining below its 2022 peak.
The report highlighted challenges for developing economies, traditionally strong drivers of global trade, with imports contracting 1% and South-South trade falling by the same margin in the third quarter.
On the other hand, developed economies led the third quarter’s growth, with stable demand driving a 3% rise in imports and a 2% in exports.
Despite obstacles, the report emphasised opportunities for developing economies to capitalize on high-growth sectors.
ICT and apparel trade surged by 13% and 14%, respectively in the third quarter 2024, underscoring the potential for diversification and entry into value-added industries.
However traditional sectors critical to developing economies faced declines.
Energy trade fell by 2% in the quarter and 7% over the year, while metals trade contracted by 3% both quarterly and annually.
Automotive trade dropped by 3% in the Q3 but is expected to end the year with modest 4% growth.
UNCTAD urges developing economies to adopt targeted policies that enhance trade diversification and invest in high-value sectors to mitigate risks.
