Global trade is on course to exceed $35 trillion in 2025 for the first time, according to UNCTAD’s final global trade update of the year. If projections hold, global trade this year will exceed $35 trillion for the first time – an increase of about $2.2 trillion, or around 7%, compared with 2024.
Trade growth remained positive in third quarter of 2025, supported by developing economies, strong South-South trade, and robust performance in Africa and East Asia.
Between July and September, global trade grew 2.5% compared with the previous three months while goods rose nearly 2% and services 4%.
Growth is expected to continue in the year’s final quarter, though at a slower pace: 0.5% for goods and 2% for services. If projections hold, goods would add about $1.5 trillion to this year’s total and services $750 billion, consistent with an overall 7% annual increase.
East Asia recorded the strongest export growth over the past year (9%), supported by a 10% surge in intra-regional trade.
Africa also performed strongly, with imports up 10% and exports 6%. South-South trade expanded around 8%, reflecting deepening economic ties among developing economies.
Among individual economies, China and the Republic of Korea stood out in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa were key drivers in South America and Africa.
India and China also posted some of the strongest growth in services exports, underscoring the growing weight of emerging economies in global trade.
In commodities, iron and steel saw the sharpest increase, rising about 40% since the third quarter of 2024. But overall natural-resource trade remained subdued, weighed down by lower prices for mineral fuels.
Manufacturing grew 10% over the year, led by electronics (14%) linked to AI-related demand. Agriculture expanded sharply in the third quarter, with cereals and fruit-and-vegetable exports each rising 11%. Automotive trade fell 4%, while fossil-fuel trade declined amid lower prices.
Looking to 2026, UNCTAD expects weaker growth as slower global activity, rising debt, higher trade costs and persistent uncertainty weigh on performance.
