A new report shows that maritime companies and companies in general should expect global growth, as the “recovery is steady but slow and differs by region.” The report issued by IMF, the International Monetary Fund, confirms that economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022-23.
The organization expects global growth, estimated at 3.2 percent in 2023, to continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025.
The baseline forecast is for the world economy to continue growing at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, at the same pace as in 2023.
Global headline inflation is expected to fall from an annual average of 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.
The pace of expansion is low by historical standards, owing to both near-term factors, such as still-high borrowing costs and withdrawal of fiscal support, and longer-term effects from the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; weak growth in productivity; and increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
According to IMF, a slight acceleration for advanced economies where growth is expected to rise from 1.6 percent in 2023 to 1.7 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025, will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging market and developing economies from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025.
The forecast for global growth five years from now at 3.1 percent is at its lowest in decades.
Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually.
In accordance with IMF, growth in China is projected to slow from 5.2 percent in 2023 to 4.6 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025 as the positive effects of one-off factors – including the postpandemic boost to consumption and fiscal stimulus – ease and weakness in the property sector persists.
As the report reveals, growth in India is projected to remain strong at 6.8 percent in 2024 and 6.5 percent in 2025, with the robustness reflecting continuing strength in domestic demand and a rising working – age population.
Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is projected to rise from an estimated 2.0 percent in 2023 to 2.8 percent in 2024 and 4.2 percent in 2025, with a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point for 2024 from the January 2024 projections.
“The global economy has been surprisingly resilient, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability,” reads the report.
