Bimco expects a slight strengthening of market conditions for crude tankers and a slight weakening for product tankers for 2025.
The demand forecast for both sectors is an increase of 2.5%-3.5% in 2025 but the product tanker market will have to contend with faster growth of the fleet and supply, according to latest tanker market outlook report from shipping association Bimco.
The forecast assumes that throughout 2025, the ratio of ships that avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal will remain at the same level as during 2024. However, should ships return to normal routings earlier than that, both markets could begin to weaken.
Specifically, a slight strengthening of the crude tanker supply/demand balance is forecast for 2025, but it could weaken in 2026 if ships can return to normal routings.
On the other hand, product tanker supply/demand balance is forecast to weaken slightly in 2025 and substantially in 2026 as the fleet grows faster and routings are assumed to return to normal.
In 2026, Bimco expects market conditions to worsen for both sectors. “We have assumed that ships will return to normal routings, which causes sailing distances to shorten,” the report reads.
In 2025, rates and prices are expected to be close to 2024 levels but weakening could start in 2026, especially in the product tanker sector.
The weakening of the product tanker market could be quite substantial, Bimco says, as the gap between supply and demand growth is forecast to be 12 percentage points. In the crude tanker market, it forecast the same gap to be 4 percentage points.
Should ships not be able to return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal in 2026, Bimco estimates that the supply and demand growth gap would narrow to 1 and 6 percentage points for crude and product tankers respectively.
“Given the supply and demand growth we forecast for 2025, we expect that 2025 freight rates should improve slightly for crude tankers and weaken slightly for product tankers. In 2026, both markets are forecast to see lower freight rates,” Bimco said.
