The Middle East conflict has fundamentally reshaped the outlook for Russia’s oil revenues, according to Kyiv’s KSE Institute estimates. In the base case – current price caps, sanctions status quo, and a conflict lasting up to three months – revenues could surge from $158bln in 2025 to $229bln in 2026. Under the optimistic scenario, with stronger sanctions enforcement and a conflict of up to six weeks, revenues would rise more modestly to $162bln in 2026. In the most adverse scenario – weak enforcement and six months of active conflict – revenues could reach $304bln in 2026.
Specifically, the KSE Institute had to revise the projected Russian oil exports revenues after the start of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. In the base case with current oil price caps and status quo of sanctions and duration of the Middle East conflict of up to 3 months, revenues will surge from $158bn in 2025 to $229bn and $162bn in 2026 and 2027, respectively on higher prices steamed from the conflict.
In the bull case (increasing sanctions pressure on Russian oil, duration of the Middle East conflict of up to 6 weeks), revenues are expected to increase only to $162bn in 2026 and contract to $99bn in 2027.
In the bear case ($10/bbl Urals discount to forecast Brent prices, half a year conflict at the Middle East), revenues will soar to $304bn (2026) and $217bn (2027).
KSE Institute estimates that 143 shadow fleet tankers carrying crude and oil products departed Russian ports or conducted ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in February 2026, with 94% of these vessels older than 15 years.
Throughout January-February 2026, India maintained steady imports of around 1 mb/d of Russian crude (-39% vs. 2025 average), representing approximately 20% of its total seaborne imports.
China continued to expand its purchases every month since November 2025, reaching 1.9 mb/d in February (+64% vs. 2025 average) – around 17% of total Chinese seaborne imports.
Russian-flagged shadow tankers’ share jumps from 3% to 21% in 9-months
Pacific Ocean ports were the main origin of shadow fleet-transported crude oil in February 2026, accounting for 52% of volumes at 1.2 mb/d, according to the March edition of Status of the Shadow Fleet by KSE Institute.
Baltic Sea ports ranked second with a 32% share at 0.7 mb/d. For oil products, Baltic Sea ports accounted for 52% of shadow fleet shipments (313 kb/d), while Black Sea ports contributed 22% (134 kb/d).
KSE Institute introduced a new monthly analytical product, the Russian Shadow Fleet Tracker, tracking Russian oil shipments carried by the shadow fleet, tracking Russian oil shipments carried by the shadow fleet, including cargo destinations, vessel ownership, and changes in fleet composition.
In February, 109 unique tankers were used to export crude oil, of which 72% belonged to the shadow fleet; 174 unique tankers carried oil products, with 37% being shadow fleet vessels. For Baltic Sea ports, the corresponding figures were 47 tankers (60% shadow fleet) for crude oil and 86 (27%) for oil products. The fleet remains predominantly old: vessels older than 15 years accounted for 96% of shadow crude oil tankers and 92% of oil product tankers.
China and India were the key destinations for shadow fleet-transported crude oil, with shares of 58% and 20%, respectively. For oil products, China and Brazil accounted for 27% and 9%. A significant share of shipments remains opaque – the final destination was unknown for 17% of crude oil volumes and 36% of oil product volumes. For Baltic Sea exports, India was the top destination for crude oil (39%) and Brazil for oil products (16%), with unknown destinations accounting for 24% and 37%, respectively.
Entities from China, Russia, and the UAE dominate the shadow fleet ecosystem, accounting for 62% of ship/commercial management, 61% of registered ownership, and 65% of ISM management. For voyages from Baltic Sea ports, China and the Seychelles play a key role in ship/commercial management and ownership, while China and Azerbaijan lead in ISM management.
