Full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the Middle East conflict ends tomorrow, according to Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE minister of industry and advanced technology, ADNOC managing director and group chief executive officer.

Detailing the impact of the conflict on oil markets, Dr. Al Jaber noted that while ADNOC can ramp up its oil production in a matter of weeks, it will take four months for oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to return to 80% of pre-conflict levels and full flows will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027.

During his conversation with the “Atlantic Council” on May 20, Al Jaber warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sets a “dangerous precedent” and its consequences are affecting the global energy system and trade, ranging from oil supplies, liquefied natural gas to fertilizers and consumer goods.

“Just over 80 days into this conflict and almost 80 countries have now taken emergency measures to support their economies, and even if this conflict ends tomorrow, full flows through Hormuz will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027. For the UAE and ADNOC, this period has been a real-world test of resilience. The UAE kept moving. Energy kept flowing. Airports stayed open. Businesses continued to operate. And investor confidence remained strong,” he said.

Dr. Al Jaber explained how the current conflict had highlighted supply chain fragility for not only oil and gas, but also critical chemicals, minerals and fertilizers driving the world economy.

He said the conflict has exposed the fragility of global supply chains, noting fuel prices are up 30%, fertilizer prices have risen 50% and airfares are up 25%.

“Hormuz is not just an oil story. It is an everything story. Think about it: we are talking LNG, jet fuel, fertilizer, aluminum, helium, critical minerals, plastics, consumer goods and general cargo. In other words, the entire supply chain of the modern global economy, from the food on your table, to the planes in the sky, to the chips in your phone,” the head of the Abu Dhabi energy and petrochemicals group ADNOC stated.

“With demand for oil staying well above 100mbpd into the 2040s, the world needs more of what the UAE produces: the lowest cost, lowest carbon barrels out there. And now we will have the flexibility to place more crude with customers everywhere.”

He stressed ADNOC remained committed to its $150bn (AED551 billion) five-year capital expenditure program to enhance its operations, drive growth and meet global energy demand.

Dr. Al Jaber went on to renew calls for Iran to immediately cease disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, and for global leaders to step up efforts to uphold freedom of navigation through the vital waterway. “This is not just an economic problem. It sets a dangerous precedent. Once you accept that a single country can hold the world’s most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is finished. If we do not defend this principle today, we will spend the next decade defending against the consequences.”

Dr. Al Jaber explained that the UAE’s decision to exit OPEC was not “a reaction or a rupture and not directed against anyone, or any institution” and the country will keep engaging and ‘showing up for our friends and partners.”

The head of ADNOC also explained how recent events had revealed critical lessons about resilience.

“The UAE was targeted by more than 3,000 missiles and drones. It was attacked for its model of development, a model based on coexistence, tolerance, economic openness and building bridges. The UAE was tested. And what the test revealed is that this country is more than a city skyline, more than oil reserves, more than a sovereign wealth fund. It is a model. And the model held. The world now knows better who we truly are.”

Tanker reports explosion off Oman with UKMTO warning ships

The master of a tanker reported on May 26 an external explosion, port side aft close to the waterline, the latest in a string of maritime security incidents tied to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis.

According to UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the incident occurred 60 nautical miles east of Muscat, Oman.

The crew and vessel are reported safe, although the master reports some bunker fuel has discharged into the sea.

Authorities are investigating the incident. UKMTO advised vessels to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity.

UKMTO has received 52 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman, during the period 28 of February to 26 of May.

The total attacks reported so far are 28, while the total suspicious activity and hijack reports are 22 and 2, respectively.

U.S. Central Command denies reported restart of escorts in Hormuz Strait

U.S. Central Command on Tuesday publicly denied reports that the U.S. Navy has restarted escorting or assisting commercial vessels during transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

“CLAIM: Recent media reporting claims that the U.S. Navy has restarted escorting or assisting commercial vessels during transits through the Strait of Hormuz. FALSE,” CENTCOM said in a post on X.

“TRUTH: Project Freedom has not resumed, and U.S. forces are not currently escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.”