Singapore-based commodity trading company Trafigura said the global market has lost more than 1.1 billion barrels of oil due to the conflict in the Middle East and warned that restoring production and shipping flows to pre-conflict levels will, by most estimates, take months, not weeks.

“That means we will continue to be in a supply deficit,” Trafigura said in its 2026 half-year financial report. “If the conflict were to persist alongside the restrictions to shipping flows, then these challenges will become truly historic.”

According to Trafigura’s estimation, daily losses amount to approximately 14 million barrels per day compared to pre-conflict levels. That number accounts for the various bypass routes and pipelines that are being utilised, without which the loss would be over 20 million barrels per day. The losses mean the world has already lost more than 1.1 billion barrels of oil.

Shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz remain close to zero due to the threat of attacks on vessels. Oil production, both crude and refined products, remains significantly curtailed.

Trafigura said gas production has also been impacted to a similar degree, as Qatar produces about 20% of the world’s LNG and has also been unable to produce or export at normal levels.

As a result, global energy prices have risen sharply during the conflict. According to Trafigura, crude oil (Brent) and diesel prices are 60% higher, gasoline (retail) prices are over 50% higher, and jet fuel prices are over 70% higher. Meanwhile, natural gas prices in Europe are also about 60% higher than on the eve of the war.

“The factors that have contained prices so far have bought the market time, but not a solution,” highlighted chief economist Saad Rahim.

The company said OECD commercial (non-SPR) inventories are now starting to draw rapidly, with most breaking well below their five-year ranges already. US gasoline stocks in particular have already reached the level they normally do at the end of the year, after driving season and refinery maintenance – but before driving season has even started.

Markets in the West also do not feel tight yet because there have already been significant reductions in demand across Asia, Australia and Africa.

While a peace agreement is still possible in the coming weeks, physical markets are already facing serious challenges.

“The knock-on impacts on other markets have been relatively limited so far,” Trafigura noted, “but we are starting to get signs of stress emerging, particularly across Asian markets.”

Most major Asian currencies have seen significant depreciation since the crisis started, and many have hit all-time lows against the dollar.

According to the company, if a negotiated peace materialises soon, would ease some of the pressure, but restoring production and shipping flows to pre-conflict levels would still take months, meaning a supply deficit would likely persist regardless.

If the conflict continues, Trafigura warns that the challenges ahead will be severe.