Shipowners need to build fleet strategies capable of surviving radically different regulatory, fuel, and technology outcomes. Strategies that each owner chooses will be dependent on their fleet type and operating context, DNV has argued in its 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050.
Different regulatory futures can lead to very different outcomes in energy efficiency uptake, fuel demand, and GHG emissions.
“By testing fuel and technology choices across multiple scenarios, shipowners can identify strategies that create value today while preserving flexibility as regulation, fuel availability, prices, and technologies evolve,” said Øyvind Sekkesæter, lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050.
According to DNV’s latest Maritime Forecast to 2050, stronger global regulatory signals could accelerate the uptake of energy-efficiency measures, enabling the global fleet to consume up to 25% less energy by 2050 compared to a scenario where regulation is driven by regions.
The report examines four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF) in its current form to its outright rejection, which could lead to a period of prolonged regulatory gridlock, and explores the implications of these outcomes for fuel demand, energy efficiency uptake, and long-term fleet fuel and technology strategies.
“Ships ordered today will operate well beyond 2050, but many of the factors shaping their future performance remain uncertain,” said DNV CEO Maritime Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria. “Regulatory requirements are advancing faster than the fuel, infrastructure, and technological systems needed to support them, making long-term investment decisions increasingly complex. The industry therefore needs greater clarity and alignment among all stakeholders to provide the confidence required for long-term investment. In the meantime, shipowners need strategies that deliver benefits today while remaining resilient across a range of regulatory and market outcomes.”
While significant progress has been made in expanding alternative-fuel capabilities of vessels, scaling fuel production depends on confidence that demand will materialize.
DNV projects shipping demand for low-GHG fuels to range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030 and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes, with uptake also shaped by future uptake of shore power, plug-in hybridization, nuclear power, and onboard carbon capture systems.
Several regulatory futures remain possible as the IMO continues negotiations on the Net-Zero Framework, with these outcomes shaping investment decisions, low-GHG fuel uptake, and energy-efficiency deployment across the global fleet.
DNV’s message was that testing fuel and technology strategies across different scenarios can help shipowners identify robust choices for an uncertain transition.
Testing, piloting, and verifying technologies can provide, according to DNV, the trusted performance data needed to make investment decisions with greater confidence.
