Middle East Gulf crude exports, excluding Iran, have returned to pre-war levels, seven months after the Strait of Hormuz closed, according to data and analytics platform Kpler.
The increase marks a significant recovery from the sharp disruption to Gulf oil shipments following the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran in late February.
At least 16.5mn barrels a day left the region in September, Kpler said on Oct. 1.
The recovery rests on a reshaped export system. The firm’s analysis found that around 40% of crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, up from 17% before the war, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE make greater use of pipeline routes.
Of the crude that crossed Hormuz in August, more than 70% changed tankers offshore. According to Kpler data, the volumes have recovered, but through a fundamentally different export system.
The figures highlight how pipelines, shuttle tankers and offshore transfers have enabled Gulf producers to restore volumes despite continuing disruption.
The latest data suggests that the Gulf oil industry has demonstrated a greater ability to adapt to prolonged disruption than initially expected. But the continuing attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz mean that the region’s export system remains exposed to significant security and logistical risks.
With Iranian oil crossings at zero under the US blockade and threats to regional infrastructure becoming more explicit, geopolitical risk remains elevated.
Tanker ordered by Iran’s IRGC to turn back in Hormuz or risk being hit: UKMTO
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ordered a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz to turn back or would be targeted, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency on Monday.
In an advisory, UKMTO said the incident occurred 11 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman.
The tanker was transiting the Strait of Hormuz inbound when it was hailed by the IRGC and instructed to turn back or face being targeted, UKMTO said.
The vessel’s master confirmed that the tanker complied with the instruction.
UKMTO said authorities were investigating the incident and advised vessels transiting the area to exercise caution and report any suspicious activity.
UKMTO has also published a warning of an attack on a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz on October 4.
UKMTO’s report cited the master of the tanker as reporting the incident, saying the tanker had been struck by an unknown projectile, causing damage to the engine room. The crew were reported to be safe, with no ‘environmental impact’ reported in the incident.
UKMTO did not identify the vessel or the origin of the projectile.
It said authorities are investigating the incident.
No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, which comes amid tensions between the US and Iran over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy and commodity supplies.
