Cargo Volume In August to Hit Highest Level Since Last Fall

As retailers stock up for the winter holidays, U.S. import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to hit its highest level in nearly a year this month, according to the Global Port Tracker report released on August 7 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

The NRF projects August will be the only month in 2023 to exceed import levels of two million TEU.

While they expect August will be the peak month for imports, they also increased their forecast for the months of November and December.

Specifically, August is forecast at 2.03 million TEU, down 10.2% year over year but the first month since last October to reach 2 million TEU. September is forecast at 1.97 million TEU, down 3%. October at 1.99 million TEU, down 1%. November at 1.92 million TEU, up 8% for the first year-over-year increase since June 2022, and December also at 1.92 million TEU, up 10.7% year over year.

“Port and package-delivery labor negotiations that threatened the supply chain at the beginning of the summer have been resolved and retailers are now focused on preparing for the all-important holiday season,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “There are always supply challenges to be faced but holiday merchandise is flowing into the country, and we expect to see a smooth shipping season ahead of the winter holiday shopping season.”

Among the factors the NRF pointed to as overhanging the supply chain and raising concerns among retailers were labor disputes. However, labor and management at West Coast ports reached a tentative contract agreement in June, a 13-day port strike in western Canada that affected some U.S. retailers last month, and United Parcel Service and the Teamsters agreed on a tentative contract that avoided a potential August 1 strike.

At the same time, the Canadian labor agreement was ratified on August 4, but the others are still going through their ratification processes.

“Dollar figures for international trade show imports remain in a year-over-year decline and cargo volume shows the same,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates.

The NRF is now forecasting full year 2023 import volume at 22.3 million TEU, down nearly 13 percent from last year. Imports for all of 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down just over one percent from the record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.

NRF vice president Jonathan Gold pointed out that “there are always supply challenges to be faced, but holiday merchandise is flowing into the country, and we expect to see a smooth shipping season ahead of the winter holiday shopping season.”