Shipowners and C-suite executives are optimistic about their company’s prospects, and say global shipping is in better shape than five years ago.
In May and June, at the height of the Hormuz crisis, Kapa Research interviewed 314 shipowners and C-suite executives from the world’s leading shipping groups, from Europe’s main maritime centres to the United States and Asia.
The Global Shipping Outlook 2026, a research initiative by Kapa Research, reveals that 94% of the respondents are optimistic about their company’s prospects, and 70% say global shipping is in better shape than five years ago.
From the respondents, 76% name geopolitical crises as the industry’s most serious problem. Yet 40% say the Hormuz crisis creates new opportunities for their own company.
The geopolitical crises in Ukraine, the Red Sea and the Middle East are the only concern ranked first in every maritime centre: 72% in Greece, 77% in the rest of Europe, 79% in the United States, 87% in Asia. Nothing else comes close. Fragmented regulation (38%) and the shortage of skilled personnel (37%) draw half that share, while the operational anxieties of the previous decade (piracy, cyber-attacks, port congestion) barely register.
Asked whether shipping wants peace or benefits from turmoil, 54% chose peace. 46% did not.
In addition, 65% already use or pilot AI and only 7% use it extensively.
When asked to identify the force that will most decisively influence maritime developments, survey participants reflected an emphasis on the East: while 17% cited Western powers (US, EU, Japan, Canada), a 76% majority identified the ‘East’ (China, India) as the industry’s primary driver in the years ahead.
The forces most expected to shape the industry’s future are the regulatory question and the West-Asia contest: the impact of the EU ETS and IMO framework on competitiveness (70%) and the strategic rivalry between the two blocs (53%).
As one Greek shipowner put it, summing up the frustration of the Western market: “We pay to be green. They pay to be competitive.”
Fuel strategies for 2035 are cautious. Almost 1 in 3 executives still plan around diesel alone (34% of smaller fleets, against 23% of the largest). Biofuels and LNG are seen as the most viable options. But availability (56%) and cost (44%) remain open questions, which keeps diesel in place as the fallback: for 30% of companies, it is still the only viable fuel. As expressed by a major company executive: “the strategy is about minimising stranded-asset risk, deferring bets, letting someone else prove the case for alternative fuels.”
Although 60% believe the energy transition will ultimately have a positive impact on their business, almost 7 in 10 are pessimistic about reaching the IMO’s net-zero target by 2050.
Meanwhile, traditional maritime nations such as the Philippines, Russia, Ukraine, Greece, and India remain the bedrock of global crewing, although the industry may be entering a new demographic phase marked by the inflow of female talent into the seafaring profession.
Finding skilled personnel ranks as the third most serious problem in modern shipping, after geopolitical crises and regulatory frameworks, at 37%.
Kapa researchers completed 314 interviews with them on three continents while the Strait of Hormuz blockage was still unfolding.
The survey is therefore a real-time record of the crisis as the industry experienced it, in the executives’ own words.
