Discoveries across Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish waters have risen 208% in six months, and in nearly six out of ten cases the payload status of the object was never publicly confirmed, according to a new assessment from security services specialist in maritime Ambrey.
Ambrey recorded 91 discoveries of unexploded ordnance (UXO), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) across the Black Sea basin between September 2, 2025, and September 7, 2026, involving at least 105 individual systems. These are finds, objects located adrift, afloat, aground or washed ashore.
Discoveries doubled between the two halves of the period, from 27 events between September 2025 and February 2026 to 56 between March and August 2026, a 107% increase. Ambrey assesses the trend as continuing: the first seven days of September 2026 alone produced eight further discoveries.
The growth is concentrated on the NATO littoral. Discoveries in Romania, Bulgaria and Türkiye rose from 13 to 40 between the two periods (+208%), while the Ukrainian and Russian total moved only from 14 to 16.
Ambrey assessed that both belligerents’ UXO discoveries go unreported.
The hazard mix has changed. Unmanned systems rose from 13 to 41 discoveries between the two periods, while sea mines and legacy ordnance fell from 11 to 8.
UAVs and USVs, not mines, are now the dominant floating hazard in the basin.
At least a third was confirmed to be carrying a live payload at the point of discovery. A further 53 (58%) were never publicly confirmed either way and should be treated as potentially live.
Ambrey warned crews cannot distinguish a decoy airframe from a live one by sight, and should treat any drifting object of this type as live until a competent EOD authority determines otherwise.
The last 12 months in the Black Sea have been defined by a sharp rise in unmanned systems on both sides.
Ambrey assesses it is highly likely that discovery rates will remain elevated through the remainder of 2026 and that offshore energy infrastructure in the Romanian and Turkish EEZ will continue to be a focal point.
Russia and Ukraine have expanded industrial output of UAVs and USVs and used them against ships, ports, coastal and offshore energy infrastructure, and inland targets. Many sorties start from the sea or from the coast and then cross the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.
A significant share of those systems never complete the mission. Ambrey regularly records or obtains footage of UAVs, USVs and missiles being shot down, jammed or otherwise disabled, then falling into the water.
It is assessed as “unlikely” that a ceasefire or settlement would remove the hazard in the near term. Ambrey said systems already in the water, and the de-mining and removal of UXO from Black Sea waters, will take years.
